129784668200522500_340Haitong securities: economy is built in turn or at the end of the quarter
March 2012 PMI become the focus of world attention: official PMI53.1% March than last month rose by 2.1%, rebounded for four consecutive months; and March HSBC PMI values of 48.3%, down from February's final 49.6%, 5 consecutive months below the 50%, and the low point since April 2009, only good for 20Per cent in November 11. Problem: how to understand the official HSBC PMI PMI and differences? From historical data, both trends broadly. Continues to rise above the line of a 50%, under another line of 50% lower case is rare. 1, sample variance. Official PMI company size, large PMI-54.3%, midsize enterprises PMI 50.4%, PMI for small business 50.9%. Final value for 53.1%, closer to the large enterprises, large enterprises in the official PMI sample weights are very large, leading trend of PMI. HSBC PMI sample is dominated by small and medium enterprises. 2, the current stage of economic development, large enterprises, small and medium-sized enterprisesVery different situations, this feature may not be a temporary phenomenon. The economic upswing, both the enterprise and the small and medium enterprises
tera gold, its prospects are better. But in a down economy period, two situations may not be the same. Due to the overall scale of benefits big companies increase marketing spending to get customers, providing high quality products at a lower cost than strong small and medium enterprises. WhileWeak aggregate demand, differentiation between the different size enterprises is inevitable. In contemporary China, big business advantages more obvious in the above, monopoly of State-owned enterprises. Issue II: who both PMI closer to economic reality in China? Close to the economic realities of China whose sample selection criteria is more in line with China's economic reality. In 2010, more than national scaleSmall enterprises 449,000, 99.3% of the total number of enterprises above designated size; 17.5% above-scale industrial output growth of SMEs throughout the country, accounting for above-scale industrial added value of 69.1%; implementation of tax is $ 1.5 trillion, 54.3% per cent of enterprises above designated size total taxes; profit $ 2.6 trillion, and total profits of enterprises above designated size 66.8%. And now two PMI sample selection and this has some differences: official PMI enterprises in the sample weights are too large, significant differences with the economy; HSBC PMI is represented by the small and medium enterprises. Two types of PMI and actually is one aspect of China's economy, largely projections, the official PMI gives 60% weight, HSBC PMI gives 40% weight, fitting the new PMI available closer to the reality of China's economy. Back to the judgment on the economic situation, we think that the economy is in construction phase at the end of, little space but quickly bounced down line is also very small, turn at the end of the second quarter, maintaining a modest u-shaped recovery for the whole year to judge not. Main reasons: first, why not for official PMI rebound on the Economic OutlookOverly optimistic? In addition to previously mentioned samples representative, more important is the rebound was mainly due to seasonal factors, after excluding the effect it does. March is the economic activity of the season, better than February is a normal phenomenon, from the establishment of PMI3 is higher than in February. In other words, the March PMI rebound to seasonal factors. From looking at the absolute value, the current 53.1% only better than over the same period in 2009. From the rebound, this time to pick up 2.1%, 3.2% below the historical average. When seasonally adjusted, the official PMI is not optimistic. Turn at the end of the second quarter the front-end impact factor because demand is gradually improving
tera power leveling, but due to the weak, conduction effect just a little too long, is expected at the end of the second quarter. Second, theCurrency weak continued to improve. February 2012 new lending only 710.7 billion yuan, in order to remove factors of the Spring Festival, we merge the data for January-February 1.4488 trillion new credit, less than per cent in January-February last year. Tone while monetary policy is "tone, fine", but reflected on the new credit is not obvious. "Money to improve" how to talk? AddedCredit does not reach the expected performance of the improvement was "weak improvement." Financial institutions loans y/y growth rate indicators are better than the total M2 and two per cent growth in January rose: financial institutions loans growth 15.2%, than per cent in January increased by 0.2% M2 growth 13% per cent, increased by 0.6gebai per cent in JanuarySome. but these two indicators are still at historically low range is only "weak improvement." Uplift of the three government investment, wind vane-type show. Currency transfer needs to have an indirect, essential characteristic drift. So, currency movements follow the what? First, the ups and downs of the economic cycle itself
tera gold, the second is government investment may be specified in the direction, especially in our country this feature more MingExplicit. For the first, needs a new driving force of the new cycle, there were no signs seen. Traditional energy investment-driven mode, export-oriented mode of failure, and domestic demand, the development of strategic industries are affected by many of the constraints of the medium-and long-term conflict, difficult for short-term implementation. Short term, the second demand stimulating effect more visible, are we more concerned. We use solidSources of investment in fixed assets of State budget funds and domestic loans to intention on behalf of the Government and monetary flow direction. 2012 growth 24.2% 1 State budget funds, significantly increased than per cent in 2011.
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