129773188859062500_19Gold: the transformation of overseas risk in China policy of counter-cyclical
China: policy reverse cycle operation
tera power leveling, economy to a soft landing is currently the kinetic energy of weak economic growth, inflationary pressures notable mitigation projected GDP growth 8.5% per cent in the first quarter, fell short of the expected 8.7%. Macro-policies are expected in the next two quarters to "steady growth" and "structure" tilt boot soft landing growth total reverse cycle operation. 2012 us GDP increasedLong forecast reduced from 8.4% to 8.1%,CPI the inflation forecast cut from 3.5% per cent. Interbank liquidity significantly improved recently, but the real economy financing conditions remained tight. Monetary authorities are expected to by adjusting the proportion of supervision, including the loan to deposit ratio, promoting the rational growth of credit. For corporate financing costs more, weak credit demand, in addition toRectifying the Bank's unreasonable charges, reduced loan interest rates increased the pressure. At the same time, if the Exchange incremental decline without losing a Central Bank is expected to cut deposit rates to reverse hedge. Fiscal policy of "enthusiasm" increases, if the revenue and expenditure of the budget can be implemented, effective fiscal deficit this year than last year, significantly expanded, truly a expansionary effect on aggregate demand. ProductOn the fiscal policy particularly in structural tax cut, "steady growth" and "structure" positive effects anticipated. Expenditures, infrastructure, affordable housing is expected and a larger increase in livelihood-related items. Don't expect real estate regulation and policy have relaxed. International: growth and differentiation, risks in 2012 was a year of growth and differentiation. Since the new year, the world macroView situation, significant changes have taken place: European debt crisis eased, United States increased a modest recovery. Expected economic growth this year mainly by United States-led
tera power leveling, its modest recovery helps global export trade to help European countries out of the economic recession, emerging market countries to achieve a soft landing. We expect the United States increased after callback in the 1 quarter, gradually gained, maintained a modest recovery for the year of 2.2%. Euro-zone into a mild recession in the first half, until it began to recover only 4 quarters, GDP contraction for the year 0.3%.
Emerging markets, Europe debt risk mitigation and domestic monetary easing under the dual stimulation, turning-point has been in the manufacturing sector in Asia, exports are expected to rebound
tera gold, and gradually achieve a soft landing. Two forces--the "risk aversion after power" and "growth differential power"--The promotion of global capital flows, investment themes of what is happening in the world of a "pursuit of security" to "the pursuit of profitability" style changes. Capital flows between Europe, the two forces against the US dollar exchange rate are both g and compatible. Capital flows between developed and emerging markets, the two forces combined: capital flows to emerging markets, supported the stock market valuation of repairExchange rate appreciation is the long-term trend. These macro-benchmarks at the international and domestic situation is facing downside risk. International part of the downside risks mainly associated with higher oil prices and economic uncertainty in Europe, leading to derail global economic recovery. Domestic downside risks mainly is that within the long period of slower growth in the inevitability and real estate regulation led to weaker aggregate demand policy in dealing withA lag in risk, policy counter-cyclical action rhythm and intensity may be lower than we expected.
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