129770904130937500_83On March 19, the National Social Security Fund Council announced, approved by the State Council, social security funds entrusted by the people's Government of Guangdong Province, investment and operation balances the basic old-age insurance for urban workers in Guangdong Province capital of 100 billion yuan. According to the introduction to the National Council for Social Security Fund, funds would arrive in batches, commissioned a tentative two-year investment period, entrusted with the investment and operation of basic old-age insurance funds,Adhere to the more prudent approach, more new money be configured in fixed-income products, ensure preserving and increasing the value of the Fund. Since the second half of last year was widely about Chinese version of 401K plans we had a substantive action, what kind of effect it would have on the stock market? "Taking history as a mirror," United States 401K experience United States similar to the stock market to bring long termSystem has been introduced as early as 1978, the 401K pension plan. The 70 's of the last century, United States economy into stagnation phase
tera gold, stock market performance for rangebound until the early 80 's, United States stock markets begin to bottom out. Pull the United States out of this downturn of the stock market power reflected in the real economy and the stock market funds in two ways. Economic growth,The early 80 's, United States by raising interest rates, succeed in stopping the continued throughout the 70 's inflation, and to reverse the declining economic situation, United States had implemented to improve international competitiveness for the master, in strategic trade policy, science and technology policy and merger and reorganization of enterprises as the main content of structural adjustment policies. Finally, halt 10 years of manufacturing industry began to show positive changes, Some manufacturing began the transformation of high-tech industry. Support from earnings and valuation of the stock market. Real economic development to ensure the profitability of listed companies increased, at the same time, increased inflows into the stock market funds also provide valuations for market support. In the 80 's, United States stock funds surged in financing for development provides an important channel for the enterprise. This important referenceIs that the stock market boom are closely related to some reform. United States the internal revenue Act of 1978
tera gold, No. 401 k clause is added, the provisions for pension deposits of private sector employers and employees provide tax concessions
tera power leveling, raising funds for investing in stocks, funds, bonds, and other financial products. Reform of the system for the United States market development provides long-termAnd relatively stable funding. United States historical experience has shown that the regained economic growth momentum is the stock market out of the core of the last century 70 's in shock, and 401K plans for the stock market out of the term shock providing thrust. Current pension market in China and United States 401K plans differ in system design, but also exists on the incremental impact of the funds on the stock marketComparison at all. 401K weak impact on the stock market of China from the United States introduced 401K short-term impact on capital markets, long-term capital market expected favourable market sentiment improved, but not changed the core of economic impact as the market trend, and long term, 401K through positive feedback effect on the stock market, positive long-term market performance. ByComparison of the system design itself, is found both in investment and asset allocation, directions, pension market of the current investment plans in China are more United States current weak 401K plan. Therefore, its impact on the stock market will be weak. (1) pensions market estimation of funding. We will enter the market sources of funds are divided into two parts and individually estimated. First, formerPension accumulated balances section. 2011 national basic old-age insurance benefits accumulated a surplus of 1.92 trillion. Announced the pensions market for pensions in the provinces of Guangdong's largest provinces, 2010 pensions accounted for the proportion of 12.87% in Guangdong Province. Other good provincial economy likely to follow the practice in Guangdong, for that part of the amount of funds,Now confirm that it will be more configured in fixed income products. While the proportion of social security funds in stocks within 20%, corporate pension funds, stocks are at the top of 20%, so the maximum projected pension investment funds, stock should not be higher than 20% (specific data see figure a). Second, a year pension market funds. 401K planSources of workers before the tax paid, so we first need to do an estimate of future workers pay. Due to the gross domestic product (GDP) levels and workers compensation ratio remained relatively stable within a certain period, so we use the average workers ' compensation and GDP ratio does not change and assume that Chinese GDP growth rate for the next 5 years 8% to predict the futureWorkers compensation (specific data see figure II). (2) to promote the measure of the stock market. First of all, to look at the net inflow of funds based on historical data and stock. Stock markets were mixed for macro-and micro-business essentially depends on the investor expectations of the individual, and this is directly reflected in equity in net inflows or outflows. From the CSI 300 indexNearly a year in the relationship between price and the net inflow of funds is not difficult to find, the vast majority of cases, net inflow of funds in the market-driven index rose, and vice versa. Regression results also show that both adjusted correlation coefficient of 72.7%, dependency more obvious. Second look at the rise in the index calculation. Previous estimates, we can get under the two scenarios I401K plans in the short term after amount of capital flows to the stock market as well as the degree of sensitivity index for inflow of funds. On this basis, we can also analyse the pension market in the short term on the stock market to boost. Analysis on the basis of the above two-part, we give the three assumptions. ① the most optimistic assumptions: 1.92 trillion pensionGolden scale of 400 billion a year into similar to Guangdong's new management approaches, and each year new pension in 50% adoption of new management approaches. Assume that 20% that part of the money in the stock market, in this case, the next 5 years, will have about 120 billion a year of funds into the stock market, the index will reach 15% a year. ② musicView assumption that existing scale of 1.92 trillion pension of 200 billion a year into similar to Guangdong's new management approaches, and each year new pension in 30% adoption of new management approaches. Assume that 20% that part of the money in the stock market, in this case, the next 5 years, capital market will have about 40 billion every year, and in relatively cautiousCase index will reach 5.5% a year. ③ was prudent assumption that existing scale of 1.92 trillion pension of 200 billion a year into similar to Guangdong's new management approaches, and each year new pension in 30% adoption of new management approaches, assuming that this 10% part of the money in the stock market, in this case, the next 5Years, will have about 40 billion of funds into the stock market, and in relatively cautious case index will reach 2.76% a year. For the above three assumptions, on the most optimistic assumptions, subject to pension market promotion to the stock market reached over years of 15%, but both have pensions, Guangdong investment introduced, similar to the approach to the new pensionsRatio proportion are from that part of the money in the stock market, difficulty of implementation larger. In the more optimistic assumptions, pensions market promotion to the stock market in the year of 5.5%, under the more cautious assumptions on the stock market only for the year of the promotion of 2.76%. From the annual fluctuation of the stock market, 2.76%-cent per cent contribution is relatively weak.
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